The future in the present

A Three Horizons Approach to Affordable Housing Preservation

In the last post, we talked about the Preservation Paradox and its three interacting components – decarbonization, rehabilitation, and stabilization.   

We concluded that decarb is a logical starting point, since the pathway to funding is less uncertain than the pathways to funding rehabilitation or stabilization, and because – if the intention is to leverage decarbonization towards the shared priority of Preservation -- making decarbonization upgrades sets in motion a cascade of interactions that move stakeholders toward that shared vision.  

This is an example of how we can apply a framework called Three Horizons, which was developed by Bill Sharpe on behalf of the International Futures Forum to help people engage more effectively with these types of complex challenges. 

The first horizon (H1) describes the system as it currently operates, the status quo.  There is much in H1 to be grateful for – and lots of things in H1 must stay the same for daily life to go on – but we’re seeing signs that our H1 ways of doing things are out of step with emerging conditions, not producing the outcomes we want to see.

The third horizon (H3) is the future system – the new ways of living, working, and investing that fit better with emerging needs and opportunities.

The second horizon (H2) is the bridge — the messy middle – where new ways of doing things emerge through a combination of deliberate action and opportunistic adaptation.  This is where Retrofit LA operates.   

The way we live now was once the third horizon – partly imagined, partly intended, largely unknown – brought about by choices we collectively made, consciously or unconsciously.

“Until you make the unconscious conscious, it will direct your life and you will call it fate.”

– Carl Jung

Whether we realize it or not, the status quo (H1) is a choice – it is not our fate.   

And, while there are parts worth conserving, H1 approaches are not going to deliver on our vision: better neighborhoods, same neighbors.    

“If we are to get anywhere, we have to choose our direction and set off, unsure of what we will find, guided by a blend of knowledge, imagination, and our values,” says Bill Sharpe, inventor of the Three Horizons framework.  “All three horizons are always present, and each horizon is a way of acting in the present moment with a future-oriented intent,”  

Acting, in the present moment, with future-oriented intent, to build a system where everyone has access to affordable, safe, healthy housing.

Monthly Updates

This month, our focus has shifted from demonstrating what's possible to building the financial and institutional infrastructure to do it at scale. With Tranche 1 complete, we are actively working to close an estimated $5–10M preservation funding gap — convening cohort partners around a collective fundraising strategy, initiating long-term cash flow analysis with Enterprise Community Partners, and engaging LAHD and LADWP on the policy and program alignment that will make future deals easier and faster. The "Deal" as a Systems Event is no longer just a concept we are testing; it is a strategy we are now building around.

Capital Absorption Framework

Shared Priorities

• Better Neighborhoods, Same Neighbors

• Everyone should have access to affordable, secure, healthy housing

• By 2028, our cohort partners will:

  • Retrofit 55 properties (almost 2,000 units) in East LA, DTLA, Little Tokyo, and South LA

  • Strengthen organizational capacity & resident engagement

  • Share generated data as a catalyst to reform the enabling environment

Pipeline

• The cohort kicked off onboarding to the Measurabl platform, integrating utility data across all 77 properties to support portfolio-level performance tracking and grant compliance reporting

• LTSC -  Gas appliance removal is largely complete, with a small number of gas stoves retained at JCI (senior resident safety), Angelina, and Menlo. Eight remaining properties are in the scoping queue, pending an LIWP funding decision expected soon.

• ELACC - Completed HVAC, heat pump water heater, lighting, and aerator retrofits across Las Margaritas Apartments, now in closeout. Solar PV bids are under review for the next tranche. EV charger installation (36 chargers) at Sol y Luna is fully permitted and construction is expected to begin soon.

• Esperanza - Secured TECH funding reservations at Budlong and Senderos, and received contractor bids for La Estrella and Amistad. Active work is advancing across four properties.

Enabling Environment

• Alignment – Submitted recommendations to LAHD to better align department programs with LADWP electrification incentives, reducing friction for future projects across the cohort pipeline

• Fundraising – Convened a cohort-wide fundraising strategy session with ELACC, LTSC, and Esperanza to close an estimated $5–10M preservation funding gap; identified 3–6 priority funders to engage by Q3, with an initial focus on philanthropic sources

• Health Co-Benefits – UCLA Fielding School of Public Health has scoped an indoor air quality study measuring VOC emissions from gas appliances across 10 apartment units in cohort properties, funded by the California Air Resources Board, with fieldwork planned for late July and early August

• USGBC-CA California Green Building Conference - Christianne Schrobilgen presented Retrofit.LA as a case study, connecting with peers and partners working on building decarbonization and affordable housing across the state.

• LACAHSA Innovation in Action Award - Retrofit.LA was recognized for its work advancing affordable housing preservation and decarbonization in Los Angeles during LACAHSA's Housing Solutions Summit.

Photo courtesy of The L.A. County Affordable Housing Solutions Agency (LACAHSA)